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The Dollar Or The Upward Trend Of Appreciation Of Commodities Will Be Low
Nov 29, 2017

The dollar or the upward trend of appreciation of commodities will be low


First, the world economy is going through the turning point, through the adjustment period after the crisis, to get rid of the influence of the global financial crisis and return to the normal return.

Second, the world economy will enter a new round of growth cycle, which is a mid-term forecast. In 90s the Internet revolution has led the world economy driven by a high growth and low inflation as long as ten years of growth cycle, and now we can feel, like shale revolution, artificial intelligence, bio pharmaceutical, also in brewing a new breakthrough, once in a field which may break through, the world economy after the crisis entered a new round of growth cycle.

Third, international trade returns to growth. We all know before, from late 90s until 2007, under the impetus of globalization, the development of international trade is very fast, hit the global financial crisis in international trade, the international trade of a sharp decline, the growth rate from 7.1% in 2007, has dropped to 2.4% last year. I personally believe that with the recovery of the world economy and the recovery of global demand, international trade will return to growth.

Fourth, the global investment prospects are good. The global financial crisis, in fact, is not only a heavy blow to international trade, but also an international investment. With the recovery of the global economy and the revival of international trade, I personally believe that the prospects for global direct investment are good.

Fifth, the global monetary policy is divided. We all know that during the global financial crisis, the global monetary policy is very similar. Whether in developing countries or developed countries, monetary policy is either loose or extremely loose. With the recovery of the world economy, there are great differences and differences in the global monetary policy. The main results are as follows: the monetary policies of the main developed countries are differentiated, and the monetary policies of the main developing countries are also being differentiated.

Sixth, the US interest rate increase process is increasing.

Seventh, the Fed is about to shrink.

Eighth, very personal judgment, the dollar index will continue to maintain a trend of appreciation for some time in the future.

Ninth, if in the next period of time, the dollar will continue to maintain the appreciation trend, international commodity prices generally will remain low, while the international commodities in international oil prices and international food prices, each country will enter the CPI basket, relatively large impact, and in each country the level of inflation and macroeconomic policy adjustments so to judge the future trend of international commodity prices, may also be a more important thing.

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