Multiple factors leading to price rise of electrolytic aluminium
In recent years, the reform of the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not limited by the influence of the supply side reform, thus increasing the price of electrolytic aluminum gradually. If we take into account the future of the international market there is no small gap, the price upward protection, electrolytic aluminum plate and downstream industries will be more investment opportunities.
Multiple factors have contributed to the rise in electrolytic aluminium prices
Statistics show that electrolytic aluminum prices are rising. Data show that Shanghai aluminum night closed up 5.05%, LME aluminum closed up 3.4%, to $2030 / ton, a record high since 2014 December.
Cause electrolytic aluminum prices rose a lot of factors, first of all from the supply side view, this year, pushing the supply side of the reform of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to obvious. In April, the national development and Reform Commission and other four ministries jointly issued the "notice" rectification of the electrolytic aluminum industry illegal projects work of the special action plan, decided to use 6 months time, the full completion of electrolytic aluminum illegal items rectification work. At present, distance supervision and rectification deadline is approaching October 15th.
With the presence of the central environmental inspection teams, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum supply, which has about 30% of its production capacity, has been supplied or further contracted. After the Shandong Province issued the "2017 environmental protection comprehensive renovation problems tackling plan", proposed in November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018, emissions of alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries limited production of more than 30%, the corresponding emission standards or limit production requirements of the implementation is not up to.
From the point of view of global supply and demand, the reform of supply side of electrolytic aluminum in China will inevitably affect the global market relations. Statistics show that in the past three years, the overseas supply gap of 400-500 tons, mainly by digesting LME inventory 1 million tons, and imports of 4 million tons from China to achieve supply and demand balance. Once China promote the supply side reforms, the existing production capacity can only meet the domestic demand, which will enter the agency estimates in 2018 the global supply shortage of 3 million 940 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum, which will lead to the rising prices of electrolytic aluminum.
From the cost point of view, about 80% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum, the main raw materials, alumina, coal prices are also rising, rising costs of electrolytic aluminum prices, industry profits improved.
It is understood that the current SHFE aluminum price of about 14800 yuan / ton, and with the reform of the supply side of the push, as well as the rebound in the downstream industry demand, electrolytic aluminum prices will continue to rise. As for how much can rise? The market has already expected a high of 20 thousand yuan / ton.
Electrolytic aluminum company's largest revenue
Electrolytic aluminum prices, the biggest benefit is the relevant electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, with product prices, the company's performance will continue to release.
Electrolytic aluminum prices have the greatest impact on the performance of related production enterprises. Supply side reform is approaching, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize high, and even continued upward, superimposed, reduced costs and other factors, with the rise in aluminum prices, product prices after the performance is expected to fully release. The company that focuses on the company itself has bauxite, or has a complete processing industry chain in the same area.
The upper reaches of electrolytic aluminum are alumina enterprises, and because of excess capacity, the pressure has not been removed, so it is impossible to get a slice of the price of electrolytic aluminum. Relevant statistics show that from 2010 to 2015, China's alumina production continued to expand, and by 2015, China's annual output of alumina has reached 58 million 979 thousand tons, more than two times as much as in 2010. Excess alumina production capacity gradually to the electrolytic aluminum industry transformation, leading to the electrolytic aluminum industry overcapacity is the main reason. Overall, the alumina will shrink because of the shrinkage of the electrolytic aluminum capacity in the future. However, from the domestic point of view, the scarcity of aluminum resources, therefore, for enterprises with bauxite resources, profitability can still be guaranteed.
Lower demand for aluminium, including infrastructure, housing, utilities and the automotive industry, was the main reason for the decline in aluminium prices between 2013 and 2016. But as China's economy stabilizes and continues to grow steadily, demand for primary aluminium will continue to grow in industries such as construction, transportation, electricity, electronics and consumer durables. According to the analysis report "is expected to 2018 sales demand and Prospect of Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry forecast prospective industry Research Institute released the" Chinese, primary aluminum consumption compound annual growth rate of about 5.5%, so the performance of leading companies in related industries will thus open up space.