Environmental protection storm must not underestimate the electrolytic aluminum in the environmental protection tuyere
Tianfeng strategy combined Tianfeng industry team, held a conference call "environmental protection storm", following the aluminum plate in the core contents of the minutes of the meeting:
Environmental inspectors on the impact of colored plates, focusing on electrolytic aluminum, we all know that the electrolytic aluminum industry is at the cusp. In February 2017 issued the "Tianjin and surrounding areas in 2017 air pollution prevention and control work plan" clearly pointed out in "2+26" city, the heating season of aluminium electrolysis cell by limiting the production of 30%, number of production plan; alumina enterprises limited production of about 30%, with the production line; carbon enterprises reach special emission limits. All production reached the special emission limit, limiting the production of more than 50%, the production line project.
Statistics, the "2+26" urban areas involving electrolytic aluminum production capacity accounted for about 40% of the country's production capacity, alumina accounted for more than 70% of the country's capacity, pre baked anode accounts for about 40% of the country's production capacity. Which need important note is that commercial pre baked anode production capacity in the country accounted for 68% of the commercial pre baked anode production capacity, nearly 70%, the impact is very large. So you can see the most recent alumina has begun to rise last week, alumina in a few days time, from 2400 yuan / ton rose to 2600 yuan / ton, rose is very alarming. Is the direct cause of Shanxi shut down 1 million tons of alumina production capacity, this is just a prelude, with the subsequent heating season comes there will be more alumina production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is shut down, although there are lower alumina capacity closures, but after that, alumina gap remains, so is the pre baked anode.
(1) assume that under the existing production capacity structure, there is no illegal capacity shutdown, no new capacity release, to maintain the current output of electrolytic aluminum, alumina has a gap of 3 million 500 thousand tons, the presence of pre baked anode 1 million tons;
(2) if all shut down illegal production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum, prebaked anode new capacity are all put into operation, will reduce the gap estimated alumina was about 400 thousand tons prebaked anode from supply shortage to surplus, this assumption is important, the new production of large-scale prebaked anode delivery;
(3) assuming that in the heating season industry limited production, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of all shut down, new capacity continued to be put forward, the estimated alumina gap was 8 million tons, the pre baked anode gap was 1 million 500 thousand tons.
The pre baked anode and alumina is mainly concerned about the sub section of prebaked anode is the only subject of the cable through the development, existing prebaked anode production capacity of 860 thousand tons, including Shandong Dezhou, Gansu Jiayuguan production capacity of 270 thousand tons of production capacity of 590 thousand tons. Shandong Dezhou production capacity in the heating season will be limited production impact, estimated impact capacity of about 7-8 tons, less than 10% of the total capacity, less affected. Estimating the company's profits this year close to about 7 hundred million, is expected in the future of prebaked anode prices are still more than 20% of the increase, the annual profit of 10-12 billion yuan, the valuation of 12X-15X, in the current stock price, there are relatively large increase in space. Therefore, pre baked anodes are recommended for cable development.