Environmental protection inspectors lead to bauxite supply worries, confusing aluminum market, add reverie
Since the beginning of the electrolytic aluminum industry supply side reform and "2+26 city" heating season staggering production policies become the main theme of the market trend of the promoting effect of aluminum, aluminum prices hit record highs since 2012. Recently, the market came the main producing areas in Shanxi, Henan bauxite for environmental inspectors in which part of bauxite mine production news and rumors, nineteen during the Shanxi will be closed in the industry of bauxite, the current and future period of time the domestic bauxite supply shortage concerns the sudden warming. In the current aluminum supply side of the reform of the strong push, and heating season approaching the background, the domestic bauxite supply problems, so that the already confusing aluminum market again reverie. As can be seen, the current aluminum industry in all aspects of the very complex operating environment, the impact of factors from the previous single to multi-dimensional expansion, the time is also intertwined. A combination of factors, the overall judgment Antaike is that the next time the domestic alumina market supply and demand pattern will appear rapid changes, the current shortage to surplus, then the problem of excess will ease from supply decreased; in addition, bauxite prices will rise in alumina production costs, while aluminum price long-term expectations the overall trend for the better, the price of alumina and aluminum prices will support each other.
The supply of bauxite is tight and there is no significant impact on alumina production in the short term, but the price of ore has pushed up the cost of alumina production
Nearly 64% of China's alumina is made from domestically produced bauxite, of which 68% are concentrated in Shanxi and Henan. According to Antaike survey, at present Shanxi, Henan province two the existence of some bauxite mine production phenomenon, especially the "2+26" city involved region, environmental inspectors more stringent, generally tight supply of bauxite. Shanxi, Henan has a few problems in the supply of bauxite alumina enterprises due to forced pressure, but the majority of enterprises in support of alumina bauxite inventory can still maintain normal production. We estimate that the stock still in Shanxi and most of Henan bauxite alumina enterprises to maintain normal production for 2-3 months, the short-term supply shortage of bauxite or difficult for alumina production in this area of large enterprises substantial. But we also see that the shortage of bauxite is expected to lead to the rapid rise in ore prices, the use of domestic bauxite production costs tend to rise. According to Aetna estimates, the current average cost of alumina in Shanxi and Henan region was about 2430 yuan / ton, up 3.2%.
The normalization of mine consolidation will continue to affect bauxite production
Recently, the Ministry of Environmental Protection released the "Tianjin and surrounding areas 2017-2018 comprehensive treatment of autumn and winter air pollution crucial action plan", the action plan set at the beginning of the refinement and strengthening. Key action plan mentioned, will be "2+26" in the city, vigorously promote the comprehensive improvement of open-pit mines, strict surface mine construction projects approved or filed, the environmental impact assessment report approval. For violation of environmental laws and regulations, resource planning, mine environmental pollution and ecological damage disorderedmining, before the end of September 2017 to be closed in accordance with law; open pit mine for pollution control norms, emissions of non-compliance, shall be ordered to stop production rectification, in accordance with the "one mine one" to develop a remediation plan, renovation completed and after passing by the relevant departments of the organization approval can resume production, not through the approval will not be allowed to resume production, for refusing to stop production or shut down according to law without authorization to resume production; open pit mines on the main responsibility of the loss, the country should strengthen the repair of greening, dust and dust reduction; open-pit mine comprehensive renovation on the situation should be timely in public media.
The information delivered above is that the future environmental supervision of open-pit mines will be more stringent, which means that the impact of environmental factors on the domestic bauxite production will continue for a long time.
If the bauxite shortage continues, it will lead to further reduction of the range and scale of alumina reduction in the heating season
According to Antaike statistics, in the "2+26+3" heating season staggering production in the city of Shanxi, Henan, alumina production capacity for 13 million 450 thousand tons / year, accounting for 40% of the total capacity of the two, of which there are 7 in Henan alumina enterprises, Shanxi has 1 alumina enterprises. We believe that, such as heating season domestic bauxite supply there is a greater risk, coupled with alumina enterprises ore inventories continued to decline, the domestic alumina production scale or will be higher than market expectations. Especially under the influence of the peak heating season in Shanxi production only 1 alumina enterprises under the situation of bauxite supply shortage will be a large area of influence or "alumina enterprise 2+26+3", the invisible will also expand the scale and scope of domestic alumina production.
Electrolytic aluminum production capacity operations will fundamentally reduce the demand for alumina, alumina supply and demand pattern will be reversed
According to the "rectification of the electrolytic aluminum industry illegal projects special action plan" (the change of industry 2017 No. 656) requirements, so far this year, China has announced the shutting down capacity of more than 4 million tons / year, the effectiveness of the electrolytic aluminum supply side reform has been gradually emerging; August 23rd Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to promote the industry to carry out the production of electrolytic aluminum reduction again in the executive meeting of the State Council on further show that the national firm determination to continue to promote the reform of the supply side of electrolytic aluminum. With the aluminum electrolysis capacity to action and strict implementation of the winter heating season staggering production, it can expect domestic alumina demand will begin to gradually decline from August, so that the alumina market from the current shortage to surplus transformation. Subsequent changes due to the above supply side are expected