Domestic winter environmental protection unprecedented strength, steel and aluminum market what impact?
With the Ministry of environmental protection today informed the Beijing Tianjin Hebei and surrounding areas "2+26" urban air pollution control, strengthening supervision, the latest day of supervision. Recently, the Chinese government's environmental protection work on air pollution has once again become a hot spot.
Shortly thereafter, Taiyuan announced the implementation of rules limiting the production of steel enterprises, industrial enterprises managing the production and transportation of iron and steel, coking foundry industry implementation of staggering production. October 1st to March 31, 2018 this year, coking enterprises to focus on time to more than 36 hours, the city is located in the construction of coking enterprises extended to more than 48 hours. In the foundry industry, in addition to meet the requirements of the emission standards of electric furnace, natural gas stove, other heating season implementation of production. If it is necessary to produce in special circumstances, it shall be reported to the municipal government for approval. During the heavy yellow and above weather warning period, the electric furnace and natural gas furnace were discontinued. Optimization of production control in non ferrous chemical industry. During the heating season, the electrolytic aluminum factory limits production by more than 30%; the carbon enterprises can not reach the special emission limits, all stop production and reach the special emission limit, and limit production by more than 50%.
Into September, the winter air pollution prevention and control programs in various provinces and cities and production instructions are more intensive.
The steel casting industry implementation of staggering production. Before September 20, 2017 make staggering limit the use of blast furnace production plan, the production of iron and steel enterprises, steel production capacity, limiting the production of 50% heating season. In addition to meet the requirements of the discharge of electric furnace, natural gas stove, other heating season implementation of production. Electric furnaces and natural gas stoves should be discontinued during heavy yellow and above weather warning. The building materials industry, cement, brick, ceramics, glass wool, rock wool, gypsum board and other building materials industry, in addition to using natural gas as fuel or electricity, heating season all shut.
Colored chemical industry during the heating season, more than 30% production of electrolytic aluminum plant; alumina enterprises limited production 30%; carbon enterprises reach special emission limits, all production, achieve special emission limits, limiting the production of more than 50%. Nonferrous metals recycling industry smelting process, heating season limit 50%.
At the same time, today, Shandong Environmental Protection Bureau of Weifang issued a "winter peak of Weifang industrial enterprises production plan". According to the plan, Weifang cement, brick and tile, lime kiln, short process iron and casting (excluding electric furnace, gas furnace) and other industries all stop production. The pharmaceutical enterprises involved in the production of API and the VOCs emission procedures for pesticide enterprises using organic solvents in the production process will be discontinued in principle. Iron and steel, carbon, coking enterprises limited production of more than 50%, involving a total of 95 enterprises. The peak time of each production industry: in November 15th of that year to March 15th of the following year.
The Morgan Stanley Bank said the policies were "unprecedented" and rated the country's winter pollution target as "the next major event of instability in global commodity prices."". The Chinese government is now restricting its use of steel and aluminum to limit production by limiting the amount of coal used in the power industry. Of course, the government may impose restrictions on ports, railways, road transport, construction and infrastructure projects, in addition to the usual practice of limiting production in winter, which will also be part of winter pollution control. He also said investors might be cautious about the timing and size of their investments.
Goldman Sachs said China's winter pollution control campaign will hurt iron ore demand, and with the local government strictly implement these measures to limit production, by the end of the year, iron ore may be reduced to 60 U. S. dollars / ton. At the same time, supply fundamentals are depressing, and iron ore production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter of this year.
Shanghai nonferrous aluminum network analyst Wang Rui believes that the introduction of Zhengzhou limited production plan for heating season in the market expected, Henan had its own request, in addition to the Ministry of environmental protection requirements of the heating season production relates to "2+26" outside the city, the province will implement the production task, it is worth noting that local aluminum industry will be added in the heating season by air the warning level for different levels (30%, 50%, 80%) of the production area is mainly involved in Gongyi, concentrated aluminum processing industry should limit production, stage will affect the local aluminum consumption, in addition to Jiaozuo ahead of the heating season production work, Henan area of the heating season in limiting the range of market expectations, including the city and "2+26" are expected to be issued production plan, relevant industry production data (30%, 50%) probably will not change rate . At present, the market is relatively a point of concern is the Shandong area heating season 30% is to limit production of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity as the base, which is able to shut down the illegal production capacity superposition to 30% in limiting the production of two; during the heating season, whether there will be a shortage of anode.
SMM steel analyst Zhang Yichao said, allegedly the world's four largest mines planned this year to China export 60 million - 80 million tons of iron ore, is currently only completed 40 million tons, the fourth quarter and at least 20 million tons of target, the supply of iron ore in China in winter but expand pollution in some areas of production, up to 50% of the iron and steel production, is undoubtedly a bad signal. While heating season limited production, while 2+26 environmental inspection, in terms of steel, it is good, bad factors collision, need to dialectically treat.