Aluminum industry 2017 depth report: aluminum price unchanged for more than
Recent aluminum plate market has reflected part of the policy expectations and rising aluminum prices, but at the current point of view, we believe that the next 1-2 quarters, the space is still considerable plate. First of all: for policy continues to implement and may exceed expectations, such as the illegal production of data than expected, the production base of peak heating season than expected (according to the current environmental protection first policy oriented, is entirely possible to strictly implement, will aggravate the supply shortage situation); secondly, aluminum prices rising momentum full, before the market worries inventory will gradually ease, the latest data show that in July the national aluminum production decline in the growth rate of negative growth, the superposition of September season started, is expected to see inventory Guaitou phenomenon at the end of August, we are optimistic about the aluminum prices rose to 20000 yuan / ton.
Recommendation: according to the combination of elasticity and valuations, we recommend Shenhuo shares, China aluminum, Yunlvgufen, Zhongfu industry, Nanshan aluminum in turn.
Electrolytic aluminum supply side reform has entered a substantive stage: at present, aluminum for change second stage has ended, the local capacity to actively implement the illegal clearing action, Xinjiang, at the end of June, Xinjiang Jiarun have already started to cut 150 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum production, Xinjiang hopes to start at the beginning of July, involving about 540 units electrolyzer 500 thousand. 30-40 has been shut down, shutting down all plans in July 20th: August 8th, Shandong; Shandong provincial development and Reform Commission issued a document to Shandong Wei bridge and letter of shutting down 3 million 210 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum, by the end of July, Weiqiao aluminum (Group) has confirmed the basic reduction of output of 1 million 400 thousand tons, the letter group (Shandong) has completed the implementation of the current production of 530 thousand tons; in 2017, the cumulative production of 2 million 174 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum Chinese, due to illegal production and production capacity to implement the already accumulated 1 million 911 thousand tons.
"2+26" environmental limit production will affect the output of one million tons: the "2+26" involving electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 11 million 560 thousand tons / year, accounting for 31% of the country's total operating capacity. According to Aladdin's calculations, heating season 4 months will reduce the supply of electrolytic aluminum at least 1 million tons or more, the impact on 2017 output of 10000 tons. In addition, due to environmental protection limit production, shutting down production capacity is difficult to re open, then the environmental impact of production cuts next year will be about 3 million 285 thousand tons. Expected in the fourth quarter of this year, electrolytic aluminum shortage situation will come: aluminum supply + environmental protection, limiting production, the impact on production capacity of at least 5 million tons or more, and is expected by the end of the formation of capacity of up to 1 million tons. Accordingly, we can predict that by the end of this year, the country's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will probably drop to about 34 million tons. If consumption, with 7% of the consumption growth rate is a conservative estimate, this year the domestic aluminum consumption will reach 35 million 100 thousand tons, and the end of operation of domestic production capacity of only 34 million tons, even if they do the full production capacity of 100%, the market is still facing short-term situation, gap of at least 1 million tons or more, the relationship between supply and demand Chinese aluminum market will be great turning.
Cost support electrolytic aluminum prices are easy to rise and fall: 2017 in the first half of China's coal, alumina, carbon anode prices showed an overall trend of rise, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production costs continued to rise at the end of 2016. According to Aetna statistics, in May 2017, China's electrolytic aluminum industry average tax weighted full cost of about 14090 yuan / ton, up 9% over the beginning of the year, the highest level since September 2014. In the future, the impact of environmental protection on the industry is not limited to the reduction of electrolytic aluminum, coal, pre baked anode and other raw materials supply will be equally limited, rising costs will support electrolytic aluminum prices continue to run high.