From the demand side, compared with the first quarter, demand was strong in the second quarter. On the one hand, the United States is the main exporter of electrolytic aluminum in China, and the russia event will squeeze a certain amount of demand from the US market (it is not yet considered the trade friction between China and the United States). More importantly, with the temperature rising, domestic construction projects and factories have started one after another. The aluminum profiles, buildings, transportation and transportation facilities, electric power and industrial aluminum materials have all entered the peak season. The traditional peak season of electrolytic aluminum has come. The demand is good.
From the supply side, the operating capacity is low, and the supply increase is less than expected. At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price is not high, about 14,000 yuan / ton, at the bottom, due to the winter production cut and the desire to restart production of electrolytic aluminum plant is not expected to be as high.
In terms of futures, the electrolytic aluminum main contract has fallen all the way since the third quarter of 2017. It began to rebound after hitting a seasonal low of 13,715 yuan/ton on March 30 this year, and the transaction volume has obviously increased. It is expected that there will be an upward trend in the probability.