Outlook 2018 non-ferrous metals: environmental protection, new energy capacity, under the influence of who would be king?
Aluminum: volume and price rise difficult to continue
Shanghai nonferrous Network Analyst Liu Xiaolei pointed out that in 2017 the domestic aluminum market is very special point is that the volume and price rise phenomenon:
Mainly because of funding, including market expectations, everyone's expectations point to the future supply side contraction, so the aluminum price from 12500 to 17500 level.
But this phenomenon is difficult to continue, because the supply side and heating season policy impact on the aluminum price support has been fully expected, the top risk continues to overlay, the early bulls have the intention to get out of the game.
To the production capacity, the supply side reform production capacity will replace part of the heating season output reduction, from June 2017 to March 2018, the superposition of the two affects the operation capacity of about 4 million tons. And the actual inventory time will continue until April 2018.
Liu Xiaolei believes that in 2018, affected by the supply side reform policy and the heating season, the overall decline in electrolytic aluminum production growth in real estate, automobile, electric power terminal slowdown, electrolytic aluminum consumption growth also has downside risks. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter of this year, because the heating season limit production is about to enter the implementation phase. And in 2018, aluminum prices will show concussion trend, weak in the first half, because the stock pressure is still large, the trend is stronger in the second half.